Comparing Dow Bubbles Past and Present: 1933, 2009, and Today

Comparing Dow Bubbles Past and Present: 1933, 2009, and Today

The Dow index for the period January 1933 to May of 1938 is plotted in green in the nearby figure. From the low of March of 1933 the Dow rose by 500% to a high in March 1937.  About a year later the bubble burst and the Dow plunged to 50% of its peak value. 

During the period March 2003 to March 2009 the Dow index followed a path quite similar to the 1933-1938 pattern, and is shown in green in the figure. The Dow rose by over 200% to a peak in October 2007, and then plunged by more than 50% in March of 2009, executing the trip in a period of 6 years, just like in the 1930’s.

Since the low of March 2000 the Dow has again risen 200%, and this history is shown on the figure in red. Will the Dow history of plunging repeat for a third time? If so, then look for the next plunge in late fall of 2013.

Velocity of Money: Why $3 Trillion Fed Dollars Are Not Moving the Economy

Velocity of Money: Why $3 Trillion Fed Dollars Are Not Moving the Economy

Velocity of money: If a single $100 bill that comes into town circulates from hand to hand and ends up paying off everyone's debts in the entire town, then the velocity of that $100 was very high. If the same $100 was stuffed under a mattress, its velocity would be zero. If money has no velocity, it is dead money.

There is plenty of money sloshing around in the coffers of financial institutions the world over, but either A) those who want to borrow it are not qualified to borrow it or 2) those who are qualified to borrow it have zero interest in borrowing it; they are desperately trying to pay down their existing debts, not acquire more debt.

Who has access to this liquidity? Not entrepreneurs, not small business, nor anybody who is in the business of growing the economy.

The Fed has created $3 Trillion of dollars via computer key-stroke (i. e., "printing" money), which has increased the money supply yet NOT caused inflation. Why? Because of the low velocity of money.

This will all change in about 10 years, when velocity of money, the economoy, and inflation, will all come roaring back. Then it will be tiger riding time for the Fed.

How Much Longer Will It Take to Recover the Great Recession Job Gap?

 How Much Longer Will It Take to Recover the Great Recession Job Gap?

At the November 2012 Rate of Job Creation (150K/Mo) It Will Take 14 Years to Restore Job Gap !!
 (i. e.,Jan. 2027)

November Jobs Report: The Long Slog Continues...

The Amity Shlaes Identity: 1937 Déjà vu All Over Again?

 

FDR and Obama share the unique distinction in American history of being re-elected in the midst of a disastrous US economy. Is this a spurious historical anomaly? Or should we look for other similarities between 1937 and 2013? 

In 1937, a year after Election Day, industrial production plummeted by 34.5 percent, unemployment rose to 15%, and the Dow dropped by half – it was the “depression within the Depression.” Is this what we are looking at for 2013? A “recession within the Great Recession”? 

Amity Shlaes, in her Bloomberg column, provides some pithy comparisons between then and now:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-18/2013-looks-a-lot-like-1937-in-four-fearsome-ways.html
 

Roosevelt said: “I should like to have it said of my first administration that in it the forces of selfishness and of lust for power met their match. I should like to have it said of my second administration that in it these forces met their master.” Can you say “Class warfare”? Does this sound at all like Obama 2012?

FDR then raised taxes in 1937, at the same time that individuals began contributing into Social Security, when labor (via the Wagner Act) was able to push for higher wages from a struggling economy, and the banks’ ability to lend was hobbled by the Banking Act of 1935, which allowed the Fed to boost reserve requirements for banks. Sound at all like Fiscal Cliff 2013? Onset of Obamacare in 2013?

Figure 1 plots the Dow index (as a percentage of the peak) for January 1937 - 1938, and for the period January 2008 – 2014, where the start time of two periods have been aligned. Uncannily similar?

-> There is the Dow crash in 1932-33, corresponding to the Dow crash of 2008-9.

-> There is the near doubling of the Dow from 1933 to 1937, corresponding to the near doubling in the Dow from 2009 to 2012.

-> There is the post-election droop and rebound, occurring both in November 1936 and November 2012.

->  Finally there is the capitulation in the fall of 1937, with the Dow dropping by 50%. Will we see this in fall of 2013?

All present indications are that history is about to repeat itself. Why should it not? Taxes are going up. Lending is going down. Unemployment is going up. Spending is going up.

Just like 1937.

Fiscal Cliff Reduces Annual Deficit by Half in 1 Year. Cost: 1/2% - 1% in GDP.

Fiscal Cliff Reduces Annual Deficit in Half in 1 Year, at cost of 1/2%  - 1% in GDP.

The Obamacare Penalty Tax

The Obamacare Penalty Tax

    The penalty/tax will be phased in from 2014 to 2016.

    The minimum penalty/tax in 2016 will be $695 per person and up to 3-times that per family. After 2016, these amounts will increase at the rate of inflation.

    The minimum penalty/tax per person will start at $95 in 2014 (and then increase through 2016)

    No family will ever pay more than 3X the per-person penalty, regardless of how many people are in the family.

    The $695 per-person penalty is only for those who make between $9,500 and ~$37,000 per year. If you make less than ~$9.500, you're exempt. If you make more than ~$37,000, your penalty is calculated by the following formula...

    The penalty is 2.5% of any household income above the level at which you are required to file a tax return. That level is currently $9,500 per person and $19,000 per couple. The penalty on any income above that is 2.5%. So the penalty can get expensive quickly if you make a lot of money.

    However, the penalty can never be more than the cost of a "Bronze" heath insurance plan purchased through one of the state "exchanges" that will be created as part of Obamacare. The CBO estimates that these policies will cost $4,500-$5,000 per person and $12,000-$12,500 per family in 2016, with the costs rising thereafter.

So, basically, you're looking at penalties of approximately the following at the following income levels:

    Less than $9,500 income = $0
    $9,500 - $37,000 income = $695
    $50,000 income = $1,000
    $75,000 income = $1,600
    $100,000 income = $2,250
    $125,000 income = $2,900
    $150,000 income = $3,500
    $175,000 income = $4,100
    $200,000 income = $4,700
    Over $200,000 = The cost of a "bronze" health-insurance plan

The IRS will collect the penalty-tax, a fact that will no doubt further enrage those who hate Obamacare.

But here's some more good news for those folks:

The IRS will not have the power to charge you criminally or seize your assets if you refuse to pay. The IRS will only have the ability to sue you. And the most the IRS can collect from you if it wins the suit is 2X the amount you owe. So if you want to thumb your nose at the penalty-tax, the IRS won't be able to do as much to you as they could if you refused to pay, say, income tax.

By the way, the following folks will be exempt from the penalty-tax:

    Those who make less than $9,500
    Employees whose employers only offer plans that cost more than 8% of the employee's income
    Those with "hardships"
    Members of Indian tribes
    Members of certain religions that don't pay Social Security tax, such as Amish, Hutterites, or Mennonites



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-is-the-obamacare-penalty-tax-2012-7#ixzz2CVMXBIqQ

The New Obamacare Taxes

Here are some of the new taxes you're going to have to pay to pay for Obamacare:

• A 3.8% surtax on "investment income" when your adjusted gross income is more than $200,000 ($250,000 for joint-filers). What is "investment income?" Dividends, interest, rent, capital gains, annuities, house sales, partnerships, etc. Taxes on dividends will rise from 15% to 18.8%--if Congress extends the Bush tax cuts. If Congress does not extend the Bush tax cuts, taxes on dividends will rise from 15% to a shocking 43.8%. (WSJ)
• A 0.9% surtax on Medicare taxes for those making $200,000 or more ($250,000 joint). You already pay Medicare tax of 1.45%, and your employer pays another 1.45% for you (unless you're self-employed, in which case you pay the whole 2.9% yourself). Next year, your Medicare bill will be 2.35%. (WSJ)
• Flexible Spending Account contributions will be capped at $2,500. Currently, there is no tax-related limit on how much you can set aside pre-tax to pay for medical expenses. Next year, there will be. If you have been socking away, say, $10,000 in your FSA to pay medical bills, you'll have to cut that to $2,500. (ATR.org)
• The itemized-deduction hurdle for medical expenses is going up to 10% of adjusted gross income. Right now, any medical expenses over 7.5% of AGI are deductible. Next year, that hurdle will be 10%. (ATR.org)
• The penalty on non-medical withdrawals from Healthcare Savings Accounts is now 20% instead of 10%.  That's twice the penalty that applies to annuities, IRAs, and other tax-free vehicles. (ATR.org)
• A tax of 10% on indoor tanning services. This has been in place for two years, since the summer of 2010. (ATR.org)
• A 40% tax on "Cadillac Health Care Plans" starting in 2018.Those whose employers pay for all or most of comprehensive healthcare plans (costing $10,200 for an individual or $27,500 for families) will have to pay a 40% tax on the amount their employer pays. The 2018 start date is said to have been a gift to unions, which often have comprehensive plans. (ATR.org)
• A"Medicine Cabinet Tax" that eliminates the ability to pay for over-the-counter medicines from a pre-tax Flexible Spending Account. This started in January 2011. (ATR.org)
• A "penalty" tax for those who don't buy health insurance. This will phase in from 2014-2016. It will range from $695 per person to about $4,700 per person, depending on your income. (More details here.)
• A tax on medical devices costing more than $100.  Starting in 2013, medical device manufacturers will have to pay a 2.3% excise tax on medical equipment. This is expected to raise the cost of medical procedures. (Breitbart.com)

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/here-are-the-new-obamacare-taxes-2012-7#ixzz2CVKbZfzj

Here are some of the new taxes you're going to have to pay to pay for Obamacare:

• A 3.8% surtax on "investment income" when your adjusted gross income is more than $200,000 ($250,000 for joint-filers). What is "investment income?" Dividends, interest, rent, capital gains, annuities, house sales, partnerships, etc. Taxes on dividends will rise from 15% to 18.8%--if Congress extends the Bush tax cuts. If Congress does not extend the Bush tax cuts, taxes on dividends will rise from 15% to a shocking 43.8%. (WSJ)
• A 0.9% surtax on Medicare taxes for those making $200,000 or more ($250,000 joint). You already pay Medicare tax of 1.45%, and your employer pays another 1.45% for you (unless you're self-employed, in which case you pay the whole 2.9% yourself). Next year, your Medicare bill will be 2.35%. (WSJ)
• Flexible Spending Account contributions will be capped at $2,500. Currently, there is no tax-related limit on how much you can set aside pre-tax to pay for medical expenses. Next year, there will be. If you have been socking away, say, $10,000 in your FSA to pay medical bills, you'll have to cut that to $2,500. (ATR.org)
• The itemized-deduction hurdle for medical expenses is going up to 10% of adjusted gross income. Right now, any medical expenses over 7.5% of AGI are deductible. Next year, that hurdle will be 10%. (ATR.org)
• The penalty on non-medical withdrawals from Healthcare Savings Accounts is now 20% instead of 10%.  That's twice the penalty that applies to annuities, IRAs, and other tax-free vehicles. (ATR.org)
• A tax of 10% on indoor tanning services. This has been in place for two years, since the summer of 2010. (ATR.org)
• A 40% tax on "Cadillac Health Care Plans" starting in 2018.Those whose employers pay for all or most of comprehensive healthcare plans (costing $10,200 for an individual or $27,500 for families) will have to pay a 40% tax on the amount their employer pays. The 2018 start date is said to have been a gift to unions, which often have comprehensive plans. (ATR.org)
• A"Medicine Cabinet Tax" that eliminates the ability to pay for over-the-counter medicines from a pre-tax Flexible Spending Account. This started in January 2011. (ATR.org)
• A "penalty" tax for those who don't buy health insurance. This will phase in from 2014-2016. It will range from $695 per person to about $4,700 per person, depending on your income. (More details here.)
• A tax on medical devices costing more than $100.  Starting in 2013, medical device manufacturers will have to pay a 2.3% excise tax on medical equipment. This is expected to raise the cost of medical procedures. (Breitbart.com)

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/here-are-the-new-obamacare-taxes-2012-7#ixzz2CVKbZfzj

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/here-are-the-new-obamacare-taxes-2012-7#ixzz2CVKbZfzj

Here are some of the new taxes for Obamacare:

    A 3.8% surtax on "investment income" when your adjusted gross income is more than $200,000 ($250,000 for joint-filers). What is "investment income?" Dividends, interest, rent, capital gains, annuities, house sales, partnerships, etc. Taxes on dividends will rise from 15% to 18.8%--if Congress extends the Bush tax cuts. If Congress does not extend the Bush tax cuts, taxes on dividends will rise from 15% to a shocking 43.8%. (WSJ)

    A 0.9% surtax on Medicare taxes for those making $200,000 or more ($250,000 joint). You already pay Medicare tax of 1.45%, and your employer pays another 1.45% for you (unless you're self-employed, in which case you pay the whole 2.9% yourself). Next year, your Medicare bill will be 2.35%. (WSJ)

    Flexible Spending Account contributions will be capped at $2,500. Currently, there is no tax-related limit on how much you can set aside pre-tax to pay for medical expenses. Next year, there will be. If you have been socking away, say, $10,000 in your FSA to pay medical bills, you'll have to cut that to $2,500. 

(ATR.org)

    The itemized-deduction hurdle for medical expenses is going up to 10% of adjusted gross income. Right now, any medical expenses over 7.5% of AGI are deductible. Next year, that hurdle will be 10%. (ATR.org)

    The penalty on non-medical withdrawals from Healthcare Savings Accounts is now 20% instead of 10%.  That's twice the penalty that applies to annuities, IRAs, and other tax-free vehicles. (ATR.org)

    A tax of 10% on indoor tanning services. This has been in place for two years, since the summer of 2010. (ATR.org)

    A 40% tax on "Cadillac Health Care Plans" starting in 2018.Those whose employers pay for all or most of comprehensive healthcare plans (costing $10,200 for an individual or $27,500 for families) will have to pay a 40% tax on the amount their employer pays. The 2018 start date is said to have been a gift to unions, which often have comprehensive plans. (ATR.org)

    A"Medicine Cabinet Tax" that eliminates the ability to pay for over-the-counter medicines from a pre-tax Flexible Spending Account. This started in January 2011. (ATR.org)

    A "penalty" tax for those who don't buy health insurance. This will phase in from 2014-2016. It will range from $695 per person to about $4,700 per person, depending on your income. (More details here.)

    A tax on medical devices costing more than $100.  Starting in 2013, medical device manufacturers will have to pay a 2.3% excise tax on medical equipment. This is expected to raise the cost of medical procedures. (Breitbart.com)

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/here-are-the-new-obamacare-taxes-2012-7#ixzz2CVKbZfzj

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/here-are-the-new-obamacare-taxes-2012-7#ixzz2CVKbZfzj

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/here-are-the-new-obamacare-taxes-2012-7#ixzz2CVKbZfzj

Here are some of the new taxes you're going to have to pay to pay for Obamacare:

• A 3.8% surtax on "investment income" when your adjusted gross income is more than $200,000 ($250,000 for joint-filers). What is "investment income?" Dividends, interest, rent, capital gains, annuities, house sales, partnerships, etc. Thanks to the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, taxes on dividends will rise rise from 15% to a shocking 43.8% on January 1st, unless Congress cuts a deal with respect to the fiscal cliff. (WSJ)
• A 0.9% surtax on Medicare taxes for those making $200,000 or more ($250,000 joint). You already pay Medicare tax of 1.45%, and your employer pays another 1.45% for you (unless you're self-employed, in which case you pay the whole 2.9% yourself). Next year, your Medicare bill will be 2.35%. (WSJ)
• Flexible Spending Account contributions will be capped at $2,500. Currently, there is no tax-related limit on how much you can set aside pre-tax to pay for medical expenses. Next year, there will be. If you have been socking away, say, $10,000 in your FSA to pay medical bills, you'll have to cut that to $2,500. (ATR.org)
• The itemized-deduction hurdle for medical expenses is going up to 10% of adjusted gross income. Right now, any medical expenses over 7.5% of AGI are deductible. Next year, that hurdle will be 10%. (ATR.org)
• The penalty on non-medical withdrawals from Healthcare Savings Accounts is now 20% instead of 10%.  That's twice the penalty that applies to annuities, IRAs, and other tax-free vehicles. (ATR.org)
• A tax of 10% on indoor tanning services. This has been in place for two years, since the summer of 2010. (ATR.org)
• A 40% tax on "Cadillac Health Care Plans" starting in 2018.Those whose employers pay for all or most of comprehensive healthcare plans (costing $10,200 for an individual or $27,500 for families) will have to pay a 40% tax on the amount their employer pays. The 2018 start date is said to have been a gift to unions, which often have comprehensive plans. (ATR.org)
• A"Medicine Cabinet Tax" that eliminates the ability to pay for over-the-counter medicines from a pre-tax Flexible Spending Account. This started in January 2011. (ATR.org)
• A "penalty" tax for those who don't buy health insurance. This will phase in from 2014-2016. It will range from $695 per person to about $4,700 per person, depending on your income. (More details here.)
• A tax on medical devices costing more than $100.  Starting in 2013, medical device manufacturers will have to pay a 2.3% excise tax on medical equipment. This is expected to raise the cost of medical procedures. (Breitbart.com)

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/here-are-the-new-obamacare-taxes-2012-7#ixzz2CVJ3XlzA

Circling the Economic Drain: Obama Selloff -> Eurozone Recession -> US Recession to follow

 Circling the Economic Drain: Obama Selloff -> Eurozone in Recession -> US Recession to follow

The downswing into the current economic slowdown has been faster than anyone has anticipated.

The GS indicator - GLI (Global Leading Indicator) shows that we are circling the drain, rotating from slowdown to contraction to recovery to expansion and now - in November - the indicators are pointing to a rapid shift into a slowdown phase. The GLI is losing momentum fast, has made lower cycle highs each time since the 2009 'recovery' began. We are headed for the lower left hand corner: GLI Deceleration and Contraction.

The Phoney Tax Fight: Where Obama and Rebulicans Agree & Disagree

It is a phoney war. They are fighting over whether to increase tax revenue by $99 Billion per year (where Obama and Republicans agree) or to increase tax revenue by $143 Billion per year (which Obama wants to do but at which Republicans are balking). The problem is that the federal deficit has been running at $1,200 Billion per year for the last four years.

 In other words, even with the largest tax increases anyone has proposed, the revenue raised will cover only about 15% of the federal deficit.

No one is addressing the other 85% of the deficit, or about $1,000 Billion, which can only be reduced by reducing spending.

Proof: Ohio's Unemployment Figures Doctored For Political Advantage by Obama

Proof: Ohio's Unemployment Figures Doctored For Political Advantage by Obama

The so called Ohio "unemployment rate miracle" touted by Obama in his many visits to the state turns out to be a doctored and manipulated fraud. For example, the September Ohio unemployment rate supposedly dipped to 7%, the lowest since September of 2008.  Examination of the underlying data shows that another important data set measurement, the LFP (Labor Force Participation), has been fudged and manipulation in order to falsely boost the unemployment figure.

The chart above illustrates how Obama operatives produced the fudged unemployment rate.

The black line in the figure (referencing the left hand scale) shows the LFP labor force participation rate plunging to 63.6% - the lowest since the "end of the recession", when the national LFP rate actually had an uptick in the past two months. This Ohio LFP artificially boosted the unemployment rate, by removing thousands of job seekers looking for work from being counted as unemployed.

Furthermore, the 63.6% LFP turns out to be the lowest for Ohio since 1984. So what can be inferred by looking at the convergence of the two data sets: LFP and Unemployemt?  (Note: the LFP in the figure references the left inverted axis, and the unemployment references the right hand axis).

What becomes clear form the figure is that once the pre-election "data nudging" ends, and the LFP is allowed to reflect reality,  the Ohio unemployment rate will explodes to over 10%, which is what its fair value is according to the participation rate. By then, of course, the game of pre-election optics will be over, and Ohioans will realize that promises, propaganda and reality never ever really existed, and that they were victimized, lied to, and played, by the Obama re-election campaign.

The truth is that Ohio, which was once home to a booming manufacturing industry, has declined by about 85,000 workers over the sad years of Obama's tenure. The unemployment rate of 7 percent is below the national rate of 7.9 percent onlye because people have stopping looking for work, and then are then not counted as unemployed. The labor force participation rate of 63.6 percent in both the U.S. and Ohio, indicates a “real unemployment rate”  closer to 10 percent.

The story gets even worse. Virtually all job gains at the national level since Obama came into office have occurred in the demographic age group 55-69 years old, which has risen by about 4 million workers. At the same time, younger people in the prime demographic of 25-54, have lost over 2 million jobs. Why? Because the elderly are forced to return to the labor force in large numbers because under ZIRP, their savings and retirement income have zero purchasing power. This skews the hirings toward those who have little wage negotiating leverage and substantially more job experience than their younger, inexperienced job hunting competition.

If Obama is re-elected, we have to look forward, depressingly, to 4 more years of this.

The Psychological Satisfaction of Twitter

The Psychological Satisfaction of Twitter

Nobody understands the brave new world of Twitter.

Most people are confounded and mystified by why it is that they love it so, and why they become so addicted. People are mystified by:
a) how to come to terms with Twitter,
b) how to understand it, and
c) what their deep underlying psychological needs are which Twitter seems to satisfy.

Addressing these questions has become a veritable cottage industry, spawning terabytes of nonsense and bloviating worldwide. But just how and why does Twitter really do what it does, namely fill a deep psychological need in our society, and in particular, how does Twitter address the following very pithy and fascinating questions:

• Why do I Twitter?
• Why is it so addictive & popular?
• Why is it rapidly becoming the dominant channel for all social media?

There’s been plenty of learned, pointy headed, adenoidal, scolding, agonized stuff about this, summarized below:

According to the “experts”, Twitter is:

• Narcissistic
• Done by people with low self-esteem
• The killer app for killing time & filling any moment with useless drivel
• Perfect for a culture starved for real community and tribal yearnings
• Perfect for brains wired to operate within the social context of community
• Needed to satisfy a deep evolutionary need for community, compelling people to tweet
• Needed to satisfy social needs, like those for belonging, love, affection, friendships, romantic attachments, companionship, relationship, and acceptance

None of the above is correct or true. It is really much much simpler.

We only need to go back to the 1943 paper "A Theory of Human Motivation" by the great psychologist Abraham Maslow, to get a handle on what it is that human beings need, and what motivates them, and to better understand why Twitter is an amazing phenomenon.

Figure 1 illustrates Prof. Maslow’s insights and the portion of his Triangle which Twitter addresses. But today’s misguided pundits are wrong, and even Prof. Maslow is a little bit wrong, in terms of emphasis, regarding what Twitter satisfies, and why it is like chocolate, like candy, like even sex, in its powers of attraction and addiction.

And the answer is:

Twitter Allows the Harmless Release/Expression of Pent-Up Anger and/or Love

Yes…

Twittering allows any person who is upset about anything at all, who is angry or frustrated about anything at all, or who feels strong attraction or love, to express him or herself in a totally harmless yet satisfying way. As a Twitterer, the person may directly address the object of his anger and/or love, and expend him or herself as energetically fully or little as they wish.

Moreover, the Twitterer may have a very reasonable realistic expectation that SOMEBODY will see what he has sent out, and that there may even be a response, meaning a bond of communication. Gratifying, if that happens. Not solipsistic. And best of all, it is completely harmless and safe, more or less.

Thus Twittering provides a unique form of self expression and communication which is beneficial to both the person who sends the Twitter, and the person who reads or receives the Twitter. And who may or may not choose to respond. Freedom. And anonymous, if the person is not a celebrity.

The result is a big “Aaahhhh…..”, such as the sound one makes after satisfying a hunger with particularly delicious foods: good soup, or fruits, or candy, or meat. Or after having a great conversation, or having meeting of the minds with someone. Or after good sex. Or not so good sex.

So Twitter gives the Twitterer a venue where he or she has virtual partner, ready made, with none of the mess or bother or disappointment or tragedy of a real live partner.

But is it like talking to a PSO? Possibly. If the PSO is a multi-faceted individual that can satisfy on many levels. But what’s ‘rong wit dat? As Joycelyn Elders, former Surgeon General of the United States, famously said: "I think that it is part of human sexuality, and perhaps it should be taught."

This all leaves open the question of why celebrities and beautiful people of all ilk indulge in Twitter. Wait, I'm thinking...

Hero Ty Woods betrayed by DO NOT SHOOT order from WH. Benghazi terrorists tracked & mortared him via Woods' Laser Designator

 

Hero Ty Woods betrayed by DO NOT SHOOT order from WH. Benghazi terrorists tracked & mortared him via Woods' Laser Designator

The standard protocol for military operations utilizing laser designation is:

1) First establish communication between:
    a) the asset who is 'painting' the target with a laser designator, and
    b) the weapons system which will fire at the target with laser guided bombs or laser guided 50 caliber guns

2) Turn On Laser Designator beam for shortest time possible, until reflected energy is acquired by the weapons platform.

3) Destroy the designated target.

The reason for this protocol is that as soon as the laser is turned on, the designator itself is 'lit up' and very visible to the enemy via the radiation which it emits. The designator then becomes very very vulnerable. Because the enemy can easily detect the illuminating laser beam, and to save itself, will try to destroy the laser, before it is hit. Timing is vitally critical:  there is laser 'ON' time, then acquisition by the weapon system, and then killing of the target, and this must happen just as fast as possible. So as not to give time to the enemy to destroy the designator.

Former Navy Seal Ty Woods was an experienced war-fighter and knew all of the above. So he established communications with a Hercules C-130 gunship flying over the CIA Annex in Benghazi, after the attack has started. Ty Woods then located the mortar team that was firing on the CIA Annex. He informed the Hercules that he was ready to designate. He was given permission to laser designate the target. And then, inexplicably, or something, the Hercules failed to fire on the target, leaving Ty Woods twisting in the breeze, exposed to the enemy.

Ty Woods's laser was turned on, and he was as exposed as a deer in the headlights. The terrorist mortar team immediately focussed on him, and it may be that they even used Woods own laser beam to guide the mortar round in on Woods. Which killed him.

What happened?

Woods was betrayed. The protocol was violated. The Hercules C-130, instead of killing the target, witheld fire.

Why?

The military team manning the guns and bombs on the Hercules would never ever betray a comrade whose life was at risk, and leave him in mortal danger exposed to the enemy.

They were ordered to stand down by the White House, after Ty Woods had become exposed via his laser beam. The WH order was DO NOT FIRE. This order killed Ty Woods as surely as the mortar round which landed almost on top of him.

Dereliction of Duty? Timidity? Cowardice in the face of the Enemy? Impeachable offences.

YEs, Yes, Yes, and Yes.

Political calculation gone very very bad: Outrageous denial of life-saving help to comrades under fire. Court martial responsible Commanders.

Political calculation gone very very bad: Outrageous denial of life-saving help to comrades under fire. Court martial responsible Commanders.

 Obama was informed of Benghazi terror attack by military aide, who is never more than steps away from President. The message was verbal, face to face. Obama knew the truth within an hour of start of attack. The decision to deny life-saving help to US people under fire was Obama's. Not CIA, not Patreus, not Hillary. Court martial offense. Cowardice under fire.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/26/cia-operators-were-denied-request-for-help-during-benghazi-attack-sources-say/#ixzz2AUjU39Uh

Urgent requests for military back-up from the Benghazi CIA annex during the attack on the U.S. consulate... WAS DENIED by the CIA chain of command -- who twice told the CIA operators to "stand down" rather than help ambassador Christopher Stevens in Benghazi Sept. 11.

Former Navy SEAL Tyrone Woods and at least two others ignored those orders...they called again for military support because they were taking fire.The request was denied...A special operator on the roof of the CIA annex had visual contact and a laser pointing at the Libyan mortar team that was targeting the CIA annex. The operators were calling in coordinates of where the Libyan forces were firing from.

The fighting at the CIA annex went on for more than four hours -- enough time for any planes based in Sigonella Air base, just 480 miles away, to arrive. Fox News has also learned that two separate Tier One Special operations forces were told to wait, among them Delta Force operators.

A Special Operations team, CIF (Commanders in Extremis Force)...were never told to deploy...they could have flown to Benghazi in less than two hours.

There were two military surveillance drones over Benghazi shortly after the attack began. Both were capable of sending real time visuals back to U.S. officials in Washington, D.C. Any U.S. official or agency with the proper clearance, including the White House Situation Room, State Department, CIA, Pentagon and others, could call up that video in real time on their computers.

Tyrone Woods was later joined at the scene by fellow former Navy SEAL Glen Doherty. They were both killed by a mortar shell at 4 a.m. Libyan time, nearly seven hours after the attack on the consulate began -- a window that represented more than enough time for the U.S. military to send back-up from nearby bases in Europe.

The team inside the CIA annex had captured three Libyan attackers and was forced to hand them over to the Libyans (by Libyan authorities).

New Book Blames Bernanke's Fed Policy (not W, not Wall Street) for causing Great Recession of 2008-09

New Book Blames Bernanke's Fed Policy (not W, not Wall Street) for causing Great Recession of 2008-09

Senior Fed economist Robert Hertzel writes: “Restrictive monetary policy rather than the deleveraging in financial markets that had begun in August 2007 offers a more direct explanation of the intensification of the recession that began in the summer of 2008.”

In his book "The Great Recession: Market Failure or Policy Failure", Hetzel pins the blame squarely on the Federal Reserve and Team Bernanke.

"A moderate recession became a major recession in summer 2008 when the [Federal Open Market Committee] ceased lowering the federal funds rate while the economy deteriorated. The central empirical fact of the 2008-2009 recession is that the severe declines in output that in appeared in the [second quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009] … had already been locked in by summer 2008."

Not only did the Fed leave rates alone between April 2008 and October 2008 as the economy deteriorated, but the FOMC “effectively tightened monetary policy in June by pushing up the expected path of the federal funds rate through the hawkish statements of its members. In May 2008, federal funds futures had been predicting the rate to remain at 2% through November. By mid-June, that forecast had risen to 2.5%.

Herzel's analysis is supported by two charts - Figure 1 shows the passive tightening by the Fed, referred to above.

The second chart, Figure 2, shows that the economy was weathering the housing collapse up until the Fed passive tightening began, which created expectations of a sharp downturn and long-term drop in wealth. It was only at that point that the economy tanked and the Great Recession began.

"In early fall 2008, the realization emerged that recession would not be confined to the United States but would be worldwide. That realization, as much as the difficulties caused by the Lehman bankruptcy, produced the decrease in equity wealth in the fall of 2008 as evidenced by the fact that broad measures of equity markets fell by the same amount as the value of bank stocks … Significant declines in household wealth have occurred at other times, for example, in 1969–1970, 1974–1975, and 2000–2003. However, during those declines in wealth, consumption has always been considerably more stable, at least since 1955 when the wealth series became available. This decline in consumption suggests that the public expected the fall in wealth to be permanent."

Accoring to economist Hertzel, Obama has been inaccurately blaming the policies of the previous Bush years for the Great Recession, which his analysis debunks and disproves.

Politicians can continue blame to Bush and the banks and free-market capitalism for the Great Recession, just as some folks still blame Hoover and Wall Street for the Great Depression. But in both cases, it was the Fed.

Fiscal Cliff (Sequestration): Where The Cuts Are - Obama In Denial

Fiscal Cliff Coming, Where the Cuts Are - Obama in Denial

Where The Cuts Are Billions of $    %  of Total Cuts Defense $492 45% Non-Defense $322 30% Interest on Debt $142 13% Medicare  $85 8% Other Mandatory Cuts $41 4% PPACA Exchange Subsidies $7 1% Totals $1,089 100%

Obama's Louis XIV moment: "..THIS NATION, ME.." ("I am the State")

 Obama's Louis XIV moment: "..THIS NATION, ME.." ("I am the State")

Obama obsessing on himself. Self referential, self absorbed use of the word "I" in the October 22 Debate:

"...this nation, me, my administration,..."

"...Now with respect to Libya, as I indicated in the last debate, when we received that phone call, I immediately made sure that, number one, that we did everything we could..."

"...Keep in mind that I and Americans took leadership in organizing an international coalition ..."

"...the world needs a strong America, and it is stronger now than when I came into office..."

"...what I now want to do is to hire more teachers,..."

"...And what I did was work with our joint chiefs of staff to think about, what are we going to need in the future..."

"...I will stand with Israel if they are attacked...."

"...as long as I'm president of the United States Iran will not get a nuclear weapon. I made that clear when I came into office...."

"...I always understand that that is the last resort,..."

"...about the Iranian revolution, I was very clear about the murderous activities that had taken place..."

"...when I was a candidate for office, first trip I took was to visit our troops. And when I went to Israel as a candidate, I didn't take donors. I didn't attend fundraisers. I went to Yad Beshef ..."

"...And then I went down to the border towns of Storok ..."

"...And I was reminded of what that would mean if those were my kids...."

"...I've used my travels, when I travel to Israel and when I travel to the region...."

"...when you were a candidate in 2008, as I was, and I said if I got bin Laden in our sights I would take that shot,..."

"...after we killed bin Laden I was at ground zero..."

"...When I came into office, we were still bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan ..."

"...You know, I was having lunch ..."

 "...I think Americans should be proud of, when Tunisians began to protest, this nation -- me, my administration -- stood with them earlier..."

"...veterans' unemployment is actually now lower than general population. It was higher when I came into office...."

"...Al Qaeda is much weaker than it was when I came into office...."

"...I set up a trade task force to go after cheaters..."

"...U.S. exports have doubled since I came into office,..."

"...I am not wrong. I am not wrong...."

"...I want to build on our strengths. And I've put forward a plan ..."

"...I want to make sure we've got the best education ..."

"...I want to control our own energy by developing oil ..."

Why this Recovery is Different (Worse) than All the Others?

Why this Recovery is Different (Worse) than All the Others?

The good news for the last 3 ½ years has been that the “Great Recession” of 2008, the deepest economic hit to America since the 1930’s Great Depression, has actually ended. Yes it really did, Bubba. Really. In June of 2009, according to every living breathing economist still alive, and also some who have died since.

So why are we still in a Jimmy Carter style economic “malaise”? 

· With Q3 GDP growth at a pitifully anemic 1.3%?

· With GDP in 2012 weaker than 2011?

· With GDP growth in 2011 weaker than 2010?

· With unemployment at 7.8%, after being above 8% for 43 consecutive months?

· With 23 million Americans unemployed or under-employed?

· With $6 Trillion debt added in 3 ½ years, more debt than added by all previous presidents?

· With a $16 Trillion national debt looming?

· With the “Fiscal Cliff” looming January 1, 2013, including massive defense cuts?

HUH?

WTF!

LOL?

 

Why is this happening? We’re supposed to be in a RECOVERY.

Well, there’s a whole lot of wringing of hands goin’ on. You know. Whimper, whimper. Bleat, bleat. We now get adenoidal explanations like: 

1) “Hey dude, it’s the new normal. You know. Like Camus in The Stranger, we have to surrender to the cosmic sphinx - like incomprehensible forces of the great unknown. “

2) The Great Recession was soooo bad, that NOBODY, not even Bill Clinton could have fixed it.

3) It was all W’s fault.

OK. All right. FINE…But excuse me for just a cotton pickin’ moment. How ‘bout we look at previous recoveries from recessions? Even as far back as 1893 and Chester A. Arthur?

Well, Figure 1 (above) shows, (in red) the “potential GDP” historical trend lines, along with (in blue) the GDP growth that actual that occurred after: 

(a) the infamous Chester A. Arthur recession of 1893-94

(b) the catastrophic Teddy Roosevelt recession of 1907-08

(c) the Ronald Reagan recession of 1981-82, and finally 

(d) the Barack Obama recovery from the Great Recession of 2008-09. 

As Big Bird would say: “Which of these things is not like the other?”

Recovery means returning to a trend (red lines in Figure 1) that was present before the recession occurred. But the Obama recovery is unique in that “return to trend” is just not happening after the Great Recession of 2008-09 recession! Very unusual compared to historical recessions. The actual GDP recovery line in blue for the dismally anemic Obama recovery has stayed below the red trend line, and there is no sign that it will ever again rise to meet the red historical trend line. This is unique among all recorded previous recessions, all of which recoverd to again join the historical trend line. The Obama recovery has gapped down releative to the trend line, and remains down.

In addition, as can be seen in the Figure, every single previous recession was followed by vigorous period of  GDP growth of 7% - 8%, sufficient to bring the GDP growth back to historical trend levels. Except the Great Recession. So the question becomes: “Why is the recovery from the Great Recession under Obama so dismally poor?”.

Well, let's review just what things have the most impact on GDP? The most important of these are:

· Available capital for investment

· Available labor force

· Labor productivity

· Fiscal and Government Policy

The current recovery is weak across the board, including for example construction, housing, and labor participation rate (i. e., the fraction of the working age workforce that is working), and the savings rate. Unemployment in the Reagan recession of ’81-’82 reached 10.8%, which was actually worse than the Great Recession. But it recovered much much quicker after 1982 than after 2009. It is also worth noting that the Great Recession was in no way unique with regard to being financial in nature – all the other recessions shown in Figure 1 were also financial crises. 

So what is the answer?Why is this recovery differenent from all the others?

According to Stanford University economist John Taylor, by far the most significant factor which impact the strength of economic recoveries is Fiscal and Government policy. of the Obama administration, mucking up what would have been a much much better recovery after 2009. For example, in the Great Depression of the 1930’s, the policies of FDR and the Federal Reserve made things worse and actually hampered the recovery. Specifically:

Great Depression Policies Which Hampered Recovery

· Federal Reserve tight money Policy, which reduced the country’s money supply by about 30%, reducing
  business investment.

· Snoot-Hawley Tariffs, reducing exports and business activity

· Tax Increases by both Hoover and FDR, reducing business investment.

· FDR’s Retained Earnings Tax, reducing business investment.

· Federal Reserve increased Bank Reserve Requirements, reducing business investment.

The case that Stanford University Professor John Taylor makes is:

-> bad government policy helped create the mess of the Great Depression, and 

->  bad government policy compounded the problem by hampering the recovery.

Turning his attention to the recovery post the Great Recession, Professor Taylor identifies specific government economic and fiscal policies responsible for the uniquely anemic and poor recovery of the last 3 ½ years. Specifically, these are as follows:

· The Stimulus Packages of Bush ($160 Billion, March 2008) in the form of a tax rebate, had almost no
  effect, and even worse, the Stimulus Packages of Obama ($865 Billion, February 2009) most of which was
  massive government spending to fund state governments, had very little effect.

· Obama’s “Cash for Clunkers” program had none or detrimental effect.

· Obama’s Subsidizing of First Time Home Buyers had no effect.

Professor Taylor (who is the odds on favorite to become Federal Reserve Chairman if Romney is elected), summarized the reasons for the failure of the above policies as follows:

· Discretionary temporary government measures have a negative impact on a recovery, because they create uncertainty, and at best only have a short term impact. Such measures do not create a sustainable recovery, but make businesses worried about investing, and reduce business activity and business investment.

· Uncertainty is a very important factor, since it makes it harder for business people to make long term decisions when the economic environment is uncertain.

This is the answer to why and how:

 

-> Obama has made the current recover uniquely worse than any other recovery in the 19th and 20th century. 

-> With policies which created nothing but uncertainty. 

-> And uncertainty killed the recovery.

IBD's Michael Ramirez Summarizes Obama Benghazi History

Rose Garden Statement Was Obama Calling Benghazi a Terrorist Attack - REALLY?