The so called Ohio "unemployment rate miracle" touted by Obama in his many visits to the state turns out to be a doctored and manipulated fraud. For example, the September Ohio unemployment rate supposedly dipped to 7%, the lowest since September of 2008. Examination of the underlying data shows that another important data set measurement, the LFP (Labor Force Participation), has been fudged and manipulation in order to falsely boost the unemployment figure.
The chart above illustrates how Obama operatives produced the fudged unemployment rate.
The black line in the figure (referencing the left hand scale) shows the LFP labor force participation rate plunging to 63.6% - the lowest since the "end of the recession", when the national LFP rate actually had an uptick in the past two months. This Ohio LFP artificially boosted the unemployment rate, by removing thousands of job seekers looking for work from being counted as unemployed.
Furthermore, the 63.6% LFP turns out to be the lowest for Ohio since 1984. So what can be inferred by looking at the convergence of the two data sets: LFP and Unemployemt? (Note: the LFP in the figure references the left inverted axis, and the unemployment references the right hand axis).
What becomes clear form the figure is that once the pre-election "data nudging" ends, and the LFP is allowed to reflect reality, the Ohio unemployment rate will explodes to over 10%, which is what its fair value is according to the participation rate. By then, of course, the game of pre-election optics will be over, and Ohioans will realize that promises, propaganda and reality never ever really existed, and that they were victimized, lied to, and played, by the Obama re-election campaign.
The truth is that Ohio, which was once home to a booming manufacturing industry, has declined by about 85,000 workers over the sad years of Obama's tenure. The unemployment rate of 7 percent is below the national rate of 7.9 percent onlye because people have stopping looking for work, and then are then not counted as unemployed. The labor force participation rate of 63.6 percent in both the U.S. and Ohio, indicates a “real unemployment rate” closer to 10 percent.
The story gets even worse. Virtually all job gains at the national level since Obama came into office have occurred in the demographic age group 55-69 years old, which has risen by about 4 million workers. At the same time, younger people in the prime demographic of 25-54, have lost over 2 million jobs. Why? Because the elderly are forced to return to the labor force in large numbers because under ZIRP, their savings and retirement income have zero purchasing power. This skews the hirings toward those who have little wage negotiating leverage and substantially more job experience than their younger, inexperienced job hunting competition.
If Obama is re-elected, we have to look forward, depressingly, to 4 more years of this.
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