1st Term Presidential Approval Rating: Last Year Rating Crucial For Re-Election

Note the crucial importance of the President's popularity rating during the 4th year of his first term. Both Reagan and Clinton, who won second terms, peaked up in the last year of their first term, to 55% for Clinton and 59% for Reagan. On the down side, both George Herbert Walker Bush  and Jimmy Carter drooped in their last year, down to 30% territory. Note also that even though Bust recovered popularity in the last months of his presidency, he still remained below 50% approval by election day, and went on to defeat. All this leads to the conclusion that the next 3 to 6 months will be determinative of Obama's re-election prospects. A droop in popularity between now and October will make him a 1-termer.