Fear and Loathing Re Tomorrow's BLS Estimate After Disappointing ADP report Today (119K VS. Expected 177K jobs created)

 

Fear and Loathing Re Tomorrow's BLS Estimate After Disappointing ADP report Today (119K VS. Expected 177K jobs created). Above chart shows that ADP and BLS are correlated 92% of the time, but lately the correlation has kind of sucked.

ADP:

    Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 119,000 from March to April on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from February to March was revised down modestly, from the initial estimate of 209,000 to a revised estimate of 201,000. Employment in the private, service-providing sector increased 123,000 in April, after rising 158,000 in March. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector declined 4,000 jobs in April. Manufacturing employment dropped 5,000 jobs, the first loss since September of last year.

Reaction to ADP Report by Reuters:

    Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 177,000 jobs. The report is jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC. ”This is an upsetting report,” said David Carter, chief investment officer at Lenox Advisors in New York. ”The strength of the U.S. economic rebound is clearly still uncertain. Hopefully we don’t get a third consecutive summer of weaker growth.”