The extreme fragility of the Chinese regime is being demonstrated in front of the eyes of the world as we speak. Since early February the Chinese Central government, headed by Hu Jintao, has been in the throes of managing a burgeoning crisis which threatened its very existence. In the months since then, things have settled down considerably.
But back in early February of 2012 fear of a military coup was running rampant in the upper strata of Hu Jintao's government in Beijing. Bo Xilai, then Communist Party chief of Chongqing city, had just visited a military complex in Kunming, some 400 miles from his political base. It was home to the 14th Group Army, a direct descendant of guerrilla forces his father led in the 1930s.
A waxwork model of Bo's father, Bo Yibo, is on display at the base. State media noted that Mr. Bo was there to "cherish the memory of revolutionary ancestors." But China's top political leaders saw it as something more alarming, according to Communist Party and military officials. They feared he was orchestrating a military coup. And they had good reasons.
Mr. Bo was in severe political trouble. On Feb. 2 he had fired his police chief in Chongqing, Wang Lijun. On Feb. 6, Mr. Wang had fled to the U.S. consulate in Chengdu. Mr. Bo had breached his authority by dispatching his police far outside their jurisdiction in a failed effort to retrieve him. Mr. Wang wound up in Beijing, making allegations against the Bo family to state security officials, including that Mr. Bo's wife was involved in the murder of a British businessman.
By visiting the military base in Yunnan province, Mr. Bo appeared to be flaunting his revolutionary ancestry and courting political support from the People's Liberation Army at a time when his career was in crisis, according to Communist Party and military officials. "Bo's trip to Yunnan caught people at the highest level off guard," said one high-ranking military officer. They saw visions of mass arrests, imprisonment, and execution of the current ruling power elite. Panic time.
Responding to the perceived threat from Mr. Bo, the Chinese authorities acted swiftly. They began by summarily and quickly dismissing Bo from his party posts. They placed him under investigation for unspecified "serious disciplinary violations." He disappeared from public view. The government then arrested his wife as a suspect in the murder of Neil Heywood, a British businessman who was close to the Bo family.
High ranking allies of Mr. Bo also were dismissed from their duties. Certain curbs were placed on internet discussion of Mr. Bo's case.
Because of the turmoil, Hu Jintao, who is expected to step down as China's party chief this fall and president in March, is more likely to continue for another year or two as head of the Central Military Commission, which controls the armed forces, analysts said.
At the present time it appears that calm has been restored, and the central governement again is in full control. But the events of the past few months underscore more than ever the relative fragility of the Chinese regime. Much has been written and speculated upon, for example, regarding the inherent contradicitons in the Chinese economic system as opposed to its political system. On the one hand their economy is probably the most free market economy in the world, with the possible exception of Hong Kong and Singaporte. But sitting astride this economic powerhouse is the same oppressive dictatorial regime that brought us the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. We well recall that this regime did not hesitate to unleash deadly force on its own population in order to maintain power.
Similar to what is happening in Syria today.
The United States is in hock to the tune of over a trillion dollars to China, which is a veritable powder keg just waiting to explode. The trigger could be an internal power struggle, as was the case with Mr. Bo, and which was the most serious such case in over 20 years in China. Or the trigger could be increasing commodity prices, and specifically food prices, which would trigger popular demonstrations and possible serious unrest.
The average Chinese spends over 47% of his income on food. He is highly intolerant of any significant price inflation on food. It would mean hunger for him and his family. And hunger in the population is never conducive to stable government.
So perhaps the impending turmoil in China will provide an opportunity for the US and other countries to become scofflaws regarding the repayment of debt to China. Perhaps the CIA is busy as we speak fomenting instability there. As in all things, the question becomes: Will instability in China help or hurt Obama's re-election chances.
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